A tweet by Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets that foretold the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria went viral on Monday after a devastating 7.8-magnitude quake struck the country.
The temblor predicted three days ago by Frank Hoogerbeets, a CEO at Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGS), a Netherlands-based research organization that monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity.
1. Critical planetary geometry
When a devastating earthquake hit Turkey and Syria on Monday, it was shocking that the only person to know about it was a Dutch researcher named Frank Hoogerbeets. He shared his prediction about the quake on social media, three days before it happened.
The deadly tremors in Turkey and Syria on Monday killed hundreds of people, and devastated cities across the region. No one knew that a 7.8-magnitude earthquake was about to strike the two countries until it actually did. The tragedy was a shock to the world, but now a self-described researcher’s prediction of the temblor has gone viral on Twitter.
According to News 18 report, Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets, who works for an organisation in the Netherlands that monitors geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity, tweeted his ‘prediction’ on 3 February. “Sooner or later there will be a M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon),” he wrote.
His tweet went viral on social media and raked millions of views. It also accumulated thousands of retweets. The researcher is CEO of SSGEOS, which is an institute that monitors the geometry between celestial bodies and their relationship to seismic activity.
Among the many factors that may cause earthquakes, planetary geometry is a key one. Planetary geometry refers to the alignment of celestial bodies that can trigger larger earthquakes, a phenomenon known as critical planetary geometry or critical lunar geometry if the Moon is involve.
Critical planetary geometry often seen in conjunction with a series of occurrences of large earthquakes, such as the earthquake on 23 June 2014 that saw three magnitude 6 quakes in the South Pacific, followed by another six in the North Pacific peaking at 7.9, all occurring within about an hour. This is a “critical grouping” of larger earthquakes, the institute notes on its website.
However, despite the link between critical planetary geometry and greater earthquakes, a recent study found that this particular grouping does not always lead to bigger quakes. In fact, sometimes only a small increase in seismic activity can be observe up to about magnitude 6.0.
2. Critical lunar geometry
As people across the world rushed to offer their condolences to those affected by Monday’s devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria, a tweet by a Dutch researcher went viral. The tweet said that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake expected to hit South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon soon.
On February 3, a research expert at Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGS), Frank Hoogerbeets, posted on his Twitter account that “Sooner or later there will be a M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)”. The researcher also warned of additional strong quakes in Central Turkey and surrounding regions.
The tweet retweeted thousands of times, and reached millions of users worldwide. It raked in millions of likes and a large number of people responded to the post by sharing their shock at the prediction.
SSGS, which is base in the Netherlands, says that critical planetary geometry or critical lunar geometry when the moon is involve, linked to larger earthquakes. However, sometimes only a small increase in seismic activity observed, SSGEOS says on its website.
According to the organization, the first clue that specific planetary and lunar geometry could associated with increased earthquake activity found on 23 June 2014. Six celestial bodies converged into a near triangle at the time and three large quakes reported by seismologists in the South Pacific and North Pacific.
The quakes occurred within a short period of each other, and they shook the earth’s crust to a significant degree. The earthquakes felt in other parts of the world, including Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and even Iraq.
This was the biggest quake to ever strike Turkey and is the country’s deadliest since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, which killed over 17,000 people. The epicentre of the quakes was near the city of Gaziantep, in southern Turkey.
In addition to the deadly quakes, hundreds of buildings completely destroyed. Thousands injured and died as well.
A 7.5-magnitude tremor struck southern Turkey and neighboring Syria on Monday, killing over 2,300 people. The quake, which was the country’s largest since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, was centered in the city of Gaziantep and was felt as far away as Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Iraq.
3. Critical tectonic geometry
Almost three days before Monday’s devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey and northern Syria, a Dutch researcher named Frank Hoogerbeets predicted that a powerful quake would strike this region. His prediction has gone viral as the death toll in both countries continues to rise.
According to a tweet by Hoogerbeets, “Sooner or later there will be a M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon)”.
The quake came as a result of the Arabian plate grinding against the Anatolian plate in southern Turkey. This creates extreme pressure that can rip and tear the crust of Earth’s surface.
In this case, the ground ripped apart at a depth of 11 miles. It killed hundreds and shattered buildings in the area. The temblor also triggered dozens of aftershocks, and the region is still reeling from its devastation.
However, this is not the first time a social media user has predicted a major quake. In December 2022, an expert in mining geology, earth sciences and earthquakes claimed that a big earthquake was imminent in the Marmara region of Turkiye, which is home to Istanbul.
This claim is based on a theory called critical planetary geometry, which describes the unique geometries between celestial bodies that have linked to stronger earthquakes. It explains that a build-up of stress in the Earth’s crust linked to the geophysical effect of the unique geometry between the sun, moon, planets and other celestial bodies.
The same relationship has found in other areas, including the Mediterranean Sea, where a large earthquake in June 2014 preceded by an increase in geomagnetic activity that is related to the geometry of the sun and planets.
But while it may be possible to predict the timing of an earthquake, scientists say there is no way to accurately predict the location and magnitude of a quake.
But if it is true that specific geometries in the solar system linked to larger earthquakes, this can help us understand what caused Monday’s deadly temblor in Turkey and Syria. Scientists say it’s because the area is situated in a zone of critical tectonic geometry, which means it is located near another part of Earth that is in a state of stress.
4. Critical geomagnetic activity
Several papers have published in the literature that investigated the possible relationship between solar-geomagnetic activity and earthquakes. In particular, these studies have focused on the extreme geomagnetic disturbances. They were also able to demonstrate that these anomalies occur before large earthquakes in the time interval of a few days.
However, most of these studies based on a small sample size and did not include the long-term variation of these indices. This is because the underlying mechanisms of geomagnetic disturbances and earthquakes do not change over a longer period of time. Therefore, it is essential to study the occurrence of these indices over a much longer period of time in order to obtain a clearer picture of their variations.
To address this problem, we examined the occurrence rate of substorms, HILDCAAs, and geomagnetic storms and the semi-annual variation of these indices over a 20-year period. In addition, we applied the Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis (Lomb, 1976; Scargle, 1982) to identify and characterize the periodicities in the occurrences of these events, geomagnetic indices and the solar-wind-magnetosphere coupling parameters.
Figure 2 illustrates monthly superposed variations of substorms, HILDCAAs, all storms, moderate storms, intense storms and super storms during the years of observation. The substorm occurrence rate (left panels) clearly exhibits two peaks during the months of March and October, whereas the HILDCAA occurrence rate does not have any obvious seasonal features, except a significant minimum in November.
Similarly, the geomagnetic storm occurrence rate (right panels) shows a clear semi-annual variation. The moderate storms and the intense storms have a spring equinoctial peak, while the super storms have a fall equinoctial peak.
In conclusion, the ap30 and ap60 indices linearly scaled indices that are useful for assessing average geomagnetic activity over a specific period of time. They are also a good fit for the 11-year sunspot number, and they are in good agreement with the monthly mean value of ap, showing solar-cycle variation.
The ap index can only resolved in 3 hr of time, but this short-term variation can contain physically meaningful information that is not able to be fully resolve by the Kp index. This results in the existence of a physical connection between solar-wind-magnetosphere coupling and earthquakes that cannot detected using the Kp index alone.
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